Malaysia's GE13 Analysis

Malaysian are eager to know when the Prime Minister will dissolve House of Representative. The call is likely to happen soon since the ruling party don't have much time to delay. I guess the time period to dissolve House of Representative will fall in between after Chinese New Year and 21 March 2013. However my analysis is not on when is the date but the post elections outcome. I can conclude the three situations;

 

SITUATION 1

 

Barisan Nasional retain the Putrajaya with 2/3 legislative power;

 

SITUATION 2

 

Barisan Nasional retain Putrajaya with simple majority nevertheless failed to improve the GE result of the 2008; and the third situation is

 

SITUATION 3

 

Barisan Nasional lost Putrajaya to Pakatan Rakyat.

I'm of the opinion that situation "1" and "3" is unlikely to take place. However situation "2" is most probably may occur as the outcome of the GE. 

The consequence of the situation "2" is a very high political risk for Mr. Najib. Past political precedent has been in place where the president must out go his party post if he failed to retain 2/3 legislative power. Most likely the same consequence will follow; the political pressure on Mr. Najib to resign as party president will be high. If he refuse to follow Tun Abdullah's step then Mr. Muhyiddin may contest for party president in party election which is expected to take place by end of 2013. Mr. Najib who are lacking the political strength in House of Representatives will face the difficult situation to convince the party voters and the probability for him to loose the party election is high. In addition the possibility for UMNO to split to two is very likely to happen.

 

 

This is my personnel political analysis.