RUSSIA, UKRAINE, CRIMEA AND THE WORLD WAR IV...

1. None or may be few, military analysts as well as Intelligence operatives hypothesize that Kiew may lose its grip on Crimea, after Ukrainians booted out Viktor Yanukovych, then the President of Ukraine. 

2. While Vladmir Putin was seen busy with the security arrangement of Sochi Olympics from terrorist elements, his “War Room Strategists” have drafted stratagem to counter Ukrainians political protest, if Yanukovych removed from the office of President. Removing Yanukovych from the president’s office means rejecting Moscow’s predominant on Ukrainian, which for long term, may paralysed Russia’s influence as well as Putin’s dream to bring back the glorious days of Russia, previously under the banner of USSR . 

3. The political dispute between the former president and his opponents was on policy matter, whether Ukraine should remain under the shadow of Moscow or the Europe. While Yanukovych prefer to stay put under Moscow, his opponents have chosen Europe as their new ally. While Ukrainians have successfully removed Moscow’s preferred president, after two months of huge protest, its badly depleted armed forces failed and surrendered their military garrisons in Crimea region in exchange of their life. They only manage to stand aside, to see how their dignity as servicemen was demolished by the pro-Russian forces.

4. Two decades ago, Ukraine with excessive pride hosted a sizeable armed forces; more than 750,000 strong servicemen with the stock of strategic nuclear arsenal, third in the world. However, corruption and self interest politicians were the major element behind the fall of the Ukrainians pride and their dignity. While the corrupted politicians made their monies, country lost its competence to defend its own territory.

5. According to the covert source, Ukraine has about 140,000 military personnel. However, only 6,000 of the country's 41,000 land troops were ready for immediate deployment. No brand new military assets floating on air, sea or land. The ineffectiveness of the armed forces has cost Ukraine not only the pride but beyond that, the land which called as Crimea. 

6. Putin’s large military build-ups at the border of the East Ukraine, shows Crimea is not the last region that will be annexed by Moscow but it may go beyond the physical border of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Even-though, Putin said he does not wish to see Ukraine splits yet the sincerity on his words is debatable.  

7. In-fact, Putin before the annexation of Crimea denied that balaclava armed men not belongs to Russian military services. On the other hand, it is an open secret that they are the limb of Russia’s armed forces, in particular, Russian Black Sea Fleet, who have navy base in Sevastopol, Crimea located at the South-western region of Crimea Peninsula. 

Comment  

8. In my opinion, the failure to foresee Putin’s decision to annex Crimea ahead before the collapse of pro-Moscow’s government in Kiew is a civilian-military intelligence failure. Even-though, the United States says they have anticipated Putin’s decision, yet the statement is most likely words of cover-up on the intelligence failure. 

9. As we are aware, when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine was holding more than 1,200 nuclear warheads and approximately 2,500 tactical nuclear weapons. However, Ukraine agreed to give up those deadly arsenals, and in return, the US, UK and Russia signed a memorandum in Budapest in 1994 saying they would refrain from the threat or use of force or economic coercion against the country. Therefore, when Russia annexed Crimea, the principle of the “Budapest agreement” had been betrayed not only by Moscow but Washington as well as London, whom partially to be blamed for its failure to uphold the principles stipulated in the agreement. For the long term, this circumstance may bring more harm to the small countries which have allocated minimal defence budget and has put a trust on international agreement.   

10. When Iraq annexed Kuwait in early 90’s, as its region, instantly the US and its allies within three days launched massive military operation to bring back the sovereignty of Kuwait. Whereas in Ukraine’s crisis, the best the US, UK as well as Europe can do is the economic sanction, which is impossible to have an immediate impact. Thus, the annexation of Crime as a territory of Russia shows the weaknesses of so called military powers, Security Council of the United Nations as well as other International organisation and their incapability to safeguard the international agreement, in this scenario Budapest 1994 Agreement.   

11. I’m of the opinion; Putin will not put a full stop on his vision to extend the territorial boundaries of the Russia. He may sound pulling back his cadres from Ukrainian national border but sooner or later his armed forces will cross border to annex more territory.

12. Will write more when times permits...