Mindanao; ISIS next caliphate?

Isis has lost its territory in the heart of Middle East and security analysts believe many of its followers have evaded either to third state or back to their origin country.

Historically, terrorists tend to establish roots in the weak states plagued by civil conflict, sectarian/religion tension and politically weak administration as well as government's inability to maintain domestic peace and stability. 

As ISIS lost their territorial grip in the middle east and considering their expertise on cyber warfare as well as capability on urban warfare there are possibilities for them to re-emerge in a new location. Where is ISIS next safe haven?

Security analysts believe there are several potential location such as Libya, the Sinai Peninsula, Afghanistan, Yemen, several regions across Africa and the Philippines. These potential location identified based on the fact that ISIS already establish franchises and affiliates with local terrorist groups.

I am not surprised with the locations identified including the Philippines especially after the Marawi siege, which took five months for the state security forces to contain the terrorists. The state forces almost lost ground at the initial stage due to incapability on urban warfare. Furthermore, post Marawi shows hundreds of foreign fighters were killed and some managed to evade and hiding in other parts of Mindanao, Southern Philippines.

Probability for Southeast Asia especially the Philippines to be the next caliphate is high as several pending issues still remain unresolved:

i. establishment of Bangsamoro Autonomous Region through the implementation of Bangsamoro Basic Law is still pending and unlikely to materialise in close future. Murad Ebrahim, MILF chief said they are losing hearts and minds of angry young Muslims in the impoverished Mindanao;

ii. lawless and fluid security situation in Mindanao. Various insurgent groups already embrace an extreme Islamist agenda and they have openly declared their affiliation with ISIS. Open source revealed that IS making their way into the southern Philippines and expanding their influence in schools, madrasahs and secular universities;

iii. ongoing separatism issue in Southern Thailand for number of years and no solution is coming; unlikely to be solved in the near future. As young angry man may not see the light at the end of tunnel, he may joint the terrorist groups;

iv. Rohingyas issue which is very vulnerable and people can be easily influenced by extremist propaganda. Possibility for Rohingyas to take up arms for self defence is on table as Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) is already in operation through the support of external intelligence; 

v. Intelligence source reveal JI and Al-Qaeda is coming back into the radar after the lost of ISIS in middle east. As JI has a foothold in Southeast Asia and many of its former members are out from prison the possibility for them to regroup is real;

vi. Singapore always seen as a foothold of American in this region and this tiny island was targeted several times. Despite, their security arrangement is one of the best in this region yet terrorists always keep their eyes for future attacks;

vii. Open source also reported that IS gunmen are moving to the Philippines through Malaysia and Indonesia. Close source revealed that these two countries are used by terrorists as a transit point before heading to Mindanao. TMI had published (21 Feb 2018) that between Jan 24 and Feb 6 ten people had been arrested for arranging safe passage of militants to Mindanao. Loopholes still exist and intelligence need to be strengthen not only to stop the movement of terrorists but to contain any future attacks in Malaysian soil; and

vii. With the ongoing friction for political influence among world big powers in Southeast Asia, especially between the US vs China, the possibility to fuel terrorist to destabilize the region could happen.

Looking at the above possibilities, Southeast Asia region might be the next caliphate of ISIS and most probably Mindanao might be their safe haven as the security arrangement in the southern island of the Philippines is very fluid and weak. #